Advanced Ensemble Model for Solar Radiation Forecasting using Sine Cosine Algorithm and Newton’s Laws

As research in alternate energy sources is growing, solar radiation is catching the eyes of the research community immensely. Since solar energy generation depends on uncontrollable natural variables, without proper forecasting, this energy source cannot be trusted. For this forecasting, the use of machine learning algorithms is one of the best choices. This paper proposed an optimized solar radiation forecasting ensemble model consisting of pre-processing and training ensemble phases. The training ensemble phase works on an advanced sine cosine algorithm (ASCA) using Newton’s laws of gravity and motion for objects (agents). ASCA uses sine and cosine functions to update the agent’s position/velocity components by considering its mass. The training ensemble model is then developed using the k-nearest neighbors (KNN) regression. The performance of the proposed ensemble model is measured using a dataset from Kaggle (Solar Radiation Prediction, Task from NASA Hackathon). The proposed ASCA algorithm is evaluated in comparison with the Particle Swarm Optimizer (PSO), Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), Genetic Algorithm (GA), Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), Squirrel Search Algorithm (SSA), Harris Hawks Optimization (HHO), Hybrid Greedy Sine Cosine Algorithm with Differential Evolution (HGSCADE), Hybrid Modified Sine Cosine Algorithm with Cuckoo Search Algorithm (HMSCACSA), Marine Predators Algorithm (MPA), Chimp Optimization Algorithm (ChOA), and Slime Mould Algorithm (SMA). Obtained results of the proposed ensemble model are compared with those of state-of-the-art models, and significant superiority of the proposed ensemble model is confirmed using statistical analysis such as ANOVA and Wilcoxon’s rank-sum tests.