Forecasting the Impact of Population Growth on Robustness of Water Distribution Networks: A System Dynamics Approach

Robustness analysis of water distribution networks (WDNs) has recently come to prominence in the research literature. While the robustness analysis is garnering much attention, there is a knowledge gap surrounding the forecasting of robustness in response to changes in the parameters involved in the analysis, such as water demand and population growth. To fill this gap, this article looks at the robustness of WDNs through the lens of the system dynamics (SD) modeling approach. The objective of this article is to design a dynamic model for the robustness analysis of WDNs that can be updated as its constituent variables change over time. The propose SD modeling approach is developed for a real-world case study of an Australian town. Model simulations are performed for three scenarios designed to forecast the effects of different population growth rates on robustness. The results showed that uneven demand distribution forced by uneven population growth has a strong influence on the robustness of WDNs. Furthermore, the simulation results highlighted the importance of considering the future development pattern of suburbs at the inception of the city development planning.