Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

D. Jahagirdar, M.K. Walters, A. Novotney, E.D. Brewer, T.D. Frank, A. Carter, M.H. Biehl, H. Abbastabar, E.S. Abhilash, E. Abu-Gharbieh, L.J. Abu-Raddad, V. Adekanmbi, D.A. Adeyinka, Q.E.S. Adnani, S. Afzal, S. Aghababaei, B.O. Ahinkorah, S. Ahmad, K. Ahmadi, S. AhmadiE. Ahmadpour, M.B. Ahmed, T. Ahmed Rashid, Y. Ahmed Salih, A. Aklilu, T. Akram, C.J. Akunna, H. Al Hamad, F. Alahdab, F.M. Alanezi, E.A. Aleksandrova, K.A. Alene, L. Ali, V. Alipour, S. Almustanyir, N. Alvis-Guzman, E.K. Ameyaw, H. Amu, C.L. Andrei, T. Andrei, D. Anvari, J. Arabloo, O. Aremu, J. Arulappan, D.D. Atnafu, B.P. Ayala Quintanilla, M.A. Ayza, S. Azari, D.B. B, M. Banach, T.W. Bärnighausen, F. Barra, A. Barrow, S. Basu, S. Bazargan-Hejazi, H.G. Belay, T.M. Berheto, W.M. Bezabhe, Y.M. Bezabih, A.S. Bhagavathula, N. Bhardwaj, P. Bhardwaj, K. Bhattacharyya, S. Bibi, A. Bijani, C. Bisignano, O.A. Bolarinwa, A. Boloor, A.A. Boltaev, N.I. Briko, D. Buonsenso, K. Burkart, Z.A. Butt, C. Cao, J. Charan, S. Chatterjee, S.K. Chattu, V.K. Chattu, S.G. Choudhari, D.-T. Chu, R.A.S. Couto, R.G. Cowden, B.A. Dachew, O. Dadras, A.B. Dagnew, S.M.A. Dahlawi, X. Dai, L. Dandona, R. Dandona, J. das Neves, L. Degenhardt, F.M. Demeke, A.A. Desta, K. Deuba, D. Dhamnetiya, G.P. Dhungana, M. Dianatinasab, D. Diaz, S. Djalalinia, L.P. Doan, F. Dorostkar, H.A. Edinur, A. Effiong, S. Eftekharzadeh, M. El Sayed Zaki, R. Elayedath, M. Elhadi, S.I. El-Jaafary, Z. El-Khatib, A. Elsharkawy, A. Endalamaw, A.Y. Endries, S. Eskandarieh, I.J. Ezeonwumelu, S. Ezzikouri, M. Farahmand, E.J.A. Faraon, A.O. Fasanmi, S. Ferrero, L. Ferro Desideri, I. Filip, F. Fischer, M.O. Folayan, M. Foroutan, T. Fukumoto, M.M. Gad, M.A. Gadanya, A.M. Gaidhane, T. Garg, R.T. Gayesa, E.A. Gebreyohannes, H.A. Gesesew, A. Getachew Obsa, K. Ghadiri, A. Ghashghaee, S.A. Gilani, T.G. Ginindza, I.-R. Glavan, E.V. Glushkova, M. Golechha, H.C. Gugnani, B. Gupta, S. Gupta, V.B. Gupta, V.K. Gupta, S. Hamidi, S. Handanagic, S. Haque, H. Harapan, A. Hargono, A.I. Hasaballah, A. Hashi, S. Hassan, S. Hassanipour, K. Hayat, I. Heredia-Pi, K. Hezam, R. Holla, P. Hoogar, M.E. Hoque, M. Hosseini, M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hsairi, R. Hussain, S.E. Ibitoye, B. Idrisov, K.S. Ikuta, O.S. Ilesanmi, I.M. Ilic, M.D. Ilic, S.S.N. Irvani, M.M. Islam, N.E. Ismail, R. Itumalla, I.O. Iyamu, R. Jabbarinejad, V. Jain, R. Jayawardena, R.P. Jha, N. Joseph, A. Kabir, Z. Kabir, R. Kalhor, F. Kaliyadan, A. Kamath, T. Kanchan, H. Kandel, G. Kassahun, P.D. Katoto, G.A. Kayode, E.M. Kebede, H.K. Kebede, H. Khajuria, N. Khalid, E.A. Khan, G. Khan, K. Khatab, M.S. Kim, Y.J. Kim, A. Kisa, S. Kisa, S. Kochhar, V.A. Korshunov, P.A. Koul, S.L. Koulmane Laxminarayana, A. Koyanagi, K. Krishan, B. Kuate Defo, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, N. Kumar, A. Kwarteng, D.K. Lal, I. Landires, S. Lasrado, Z.S. Lassi, J.V. Lazarus, J.J.-H. Lee, Y.Y. Lee, K.E. LeGrand, C. Lin, X. Liu, E.R. Maddison, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, P.W. Mahasha, A. Majeed, A. Makki, A.A. Malik, W.A. Manamo, M.A. Mansournia, F.R. Martins-Melo, S.Z. Masoumi, Z.A. Memish, R.G. Menezes, E.W. Mengesha, H.E. Merie, A.G. Mersha, T. Mestrovic, P. Meylakhs, N. Mheidly, T.R. Miller, A. Mirica, B. Moazen, Y. Mohammad, M. Mohammadi, A. Mohammed, S. Mohammed, M. Moitra, A.H. Mokdad, M. Molokhia, M.A. Moni, G. Moradi, Y. Moradi, C. Mpundu-Kaambwa, S. Mubarik, S.B. Munro, L. Mwanri, J.B. Nachega, A.J. Nagarajan, A.I. Narayana, M. Naveed, B.P. Nayak, S.O. Nduaguba, S. Neupane Kandel, G. Nguefack-Tsague, T.H. Nguyen, M.R. Nixon, C.A. Nnaji, J.J. Noubiap, V. Nuñez-Samudio, T.E. Nyirenda, O.B. Oghenetega, A.T. Olagunju, B.O. Olakunde, O.F. Owopetu, M. P A, J.R. Padubidri, S. Pakhale, T. Parekh, F. Pashazadeh Kan, S. Pawar, V.C.F. Pepito, E.K. Peprah, M. Pinheiro, K.N. Pokhrel, R.V. Polibin, R.C.G. Pollok, M.J. Postma, Z. Quazi Syed, A. Radfar, R.A. Radhakrishnan, F. Rahim, V. Rahimi-Movaghar, S. Rahimzadeh, M. Rahman, A.M. Rahmani, P. Ram, C.L. Ranabhat, P. Ranasinghe, C.R. Rao, S.J. Rao, P. Rathi, D.L. Rawaf, S. Rawaf, L.D. Regassa, I.U. Rehman, A.M.N. Renzaho, N. Rezaei, O. Rezahosseini, M.S. Rezai, A. Rezapour, R.K. Ripon, V. Rodrigues, D.O. Roshchin, G.M. Rwegerera, U. Saeed, S. Saeedi Moghaddam, R. Sagar, K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman, M.R. Salem, M. Samaei, A.M. Samy, M.M. Santric-Milicevic, S. Saroshe, B. Sathian, M. Satpathy, M. Sawhney, A.E. Schutte, A. Seylani, M.A. Shaikh, M.F. Shaka, H. Shamshad, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Shannawaz, A. Shetty, J.I. Shin, K.M. Shivakumar, J.A. Singh, V.Y. Skryabin, A.A. Skryabina, R. Somayaji, S. Soshnikov, E.E. Spurlock, D.J. Stein, M.B. Sufiyan, H. Tadbiri, B.T. Tadesse, E.G. Tadesse, A.T. Tamiru, E.E. Tarkang, N. Taveira, Y. Tekalegn, F.H. Tesfay, G.A. Tessema, R. Thapar, M.R. Tovani-Palone, E. Traini, B.X. Tran, A.C. Tsai, B.S. Tusa, S. Ullah, C.D. Umeokonkwo, B. Unnikrishnan, S. Valadan Tahbaz, J.H. Villafañe, S.K. Vladimirov, B. Vo, A. Vongpradith, G.T. Vu, Y. Waheed, R.G. Wamai, G. Wang, Y. Wang, P. Ward, R. Westerman, A.S. Winkler, L. Yadav, S.H. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, T.S. Yazie, S. Yi, V. Yigit, B.W. Yirdaw, N. Yonemoto, C. Yu, I. Yunusa, M.S. Zastrozhin, A. Zastrozhina, Z.-J. Zhang, A. Zumla, J.A. Salomon, J.W. Eaton, M. Naghavi, L. Dwyer-Lindgren, H. Wang, S.S. Lim, S.I. Hay, C.J.L. Murray, H.H. Kyu, GBD 2019 HIV Collaborators

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Abstract

Summary Background The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)e633-e651
JournalThe Lancet HIV
Volume8
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

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